A data-driven look at founder personalities, team dynamics and Berlin’s growing startup ecosystem challenges assumptions and offers students practical pathways into entrepreneurship.
What makes a successful startup? Have you got what it takes to launch one? Is there such a thing as a "founder personality”? These questions drew a packed room at the Hertie School for an Entrepreneurship Evening organised by Dr Drew Dimmery, Professor of Data Science for the Common Good at the Data Science Lab.
Two experts joined the evening: Dr Fabian Braesemann from the Oxford Internet Institute of the University of Oxford, who studies what predicts startup success, and Dr Susanne Perner from TU Berlin, who helps researchers navigate Berlin's innovation ecosystem. Between them, they offered a refreshingly data-driven look at entrepreneurship that challenges quite a few assumptions.
The science of startup success
Dr Braesemann leads the Science of Startups Initiative at Oxford, applying network and data science to understand startup ecosystems as a complex system. His foundational research examined more than 21,000 startups and 25,000 founders using data from the startup repository Crunchbase, combined with founders' historical Twitter posts to work out their personality traits.
We tend to measure startup success by exits: acquisitions or IPOs. They’re visible and easy to track. Most startups don’t publicly share revenue, profitability or market share, which makes assessing their real impact tricky. Dr Braesemann’s team wants to broaden how we think about success by looking at societal impact, learning effects and contributions to local ecosystems. Not every successful company needs a splashy exit, after all.
What the data shows
Dr Braesemann’s research identified several predictors of startup success.
Location matters enormously. The US ecosystem produces far more successful startups than others. Geography isn’t destiny, but it certainly helps.
Industry makes a difference, too. Privacy, security and payments companies show higher success rates, while agriculture startups rank lower. This probably reflects less venture capital interest and fewer exit-oriented business models in that sector.
Timing and age play their part as well. Earlier-founded companies naturally show higher exit rates because they’ve had more time to mature. Market cycles like the financial crisis or the dot-com bubble also leave their mark.
The personality question
Here’s where things get particularly interesting. Rather than examining individual founder traits like education or skills, Braesemann’s team analysed entire founder teams and the personality combinations within each team. They used the Big Five model, which measures openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness and emotional stability.
What did they find?
First, founders are measurably different from the general population. They tend to be more extroverted, adventurous, less anxious and more active. Using personality traits alone, the researchers could distinguish founders from employees with over 80% accuracy. Mind you, this also reflects historical biases in who’s had access to the startup world.
Second, there’s no single “founder personality”. The research identified six distinct types. Some are more people-oriented (Leaders and Accomplishers), whereas others are technical or operational (Fighters and Engineers). This diversity matters more than any single ideal type.
Third, founders naturally gravitate towards roles that match their personality. Personality strongly predicts who becomes a CEO, a CTO, or who takes on other roles. Accomplishers commonly choose CEO positions. Fighters gravitate towards technical or operational roles. People self-select into where they’ll thrive.
Fourth, and most importantly, team personality diversity predicts success. The most successful startups have larger founder teams with at least one person scoring high in each key trait: agreeableness, conscientiousness, extraversion, emotional stability and openness.
No individual possesses all these traits, but a diverse team can cover them. Certain personality combinations increase success probabilities by 8 to 12 times. The team’s predictive model identifies 37 successful startups per 100, compared to just 15 using random allocation. That significantly outperforms baseline investment strategies.
The team is currently piloting an app to help founders identify their personality type and understand what complementary skills they might need.
Berlin’s startup ecosystem
Dr Susanne Perner offered a practical counterpoint to Braesemann’s research. As an innovation manager in TU Berlin’s technology transfer team, with a background spanning strategy consulting, private equity, pharmaceuticals and academia, she’s spent over a decade working with early-stage founders across Europe.
She addressed something important straightaway. Yes, startup failure rates are high. But the statistics don’t capture this: across 20 years of coaching, she’s seen founders who initially struggled return and apply what they’d learned to try again. Often, they succeed on their second attempt precisely because they learned what skills, network and personalities they need around them.
Why Berlin?
Berlin is widely recognised as Germany’s leading startup hub, though Munich might dispute that claim. These cities increasingly collaborate rather than compete, which is good news for everyone. What makes Berlin particularly valuable for student founders is the combination of strong AI research centres, strong startup support, active student communities and accessible public funding.
Key institutions include the Bernstein Center, BIFOLD (Berlin Institute for the Foundations of Learning and Data) and DFKI (German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence), all world-class AI research centres where many startups originate. Student communities like BLISS, the machine learning group, provide networking and learning opportunities outside formal structures. The Science & Startups initiative is a startup hub that helps researchers, advanced students and graduates transition their work from lab to market, with teams of experienced advisers working alongside applicants for public funding.
Perner particularly emphasised public funding opportunities, which many students overlook. Unlike private venture capital, public funding often comes with fewer strings attached and can provide crucial runway for early-stage ventures.
She also mentioned AI NATION, a new German-wide initiative that brings together universities and institutions to support AI-startups through collaborative efforts.
What does this mean for students?
If you’re considering entrepreneurship after your studies, here are the main takeaways.
Personality matters, but diversity matters more. Don’t worry if you don’t fit the stereotypical ”founder” mould. The most successful startups aren’t built by one exceptional individual, but by teams that complement each other’s strengths.
Think carefully about your co-founders. Make sure your team covers the key personality traits: someone needs to be agreeable, someone conscientious, someone extroverted, someone emotionally stable, and someone open to new experiences. These don’t all need to be different people, but you need these bases covered.
Use your location. Berlin’s ecosystem offers research partnerships, public funding and a supportive community. Use these resources.
Start exploring now. You don’t need everything figured out. Attend events, join student communities like BLISS, explore public funding options, and identify potential co-founders whose skills complement yours.
Remember that failure isn't final. If your first venture doesn’t succeed, you'll have learned invaluable lessons about what you need, and who you need around you, to succeed next time. The Entrepreneurship Evening showed that while startup success involves uncertainty, it's not entirely random. Data and research can help us understand the patterns. Armed with that understanding, aspiring founders can make smarter decisions about if, when and how to launch their ventures.
Interested in learning more about entrepreneurship opportunities at Hertie? Contact Prof. Drew Dimmery for more information.
