In the run-up to the official presentation of the new EU budget plans, economist Nils Redeker analyses the growth, adjustments and expected negotiations over the next two years for TV, radio and online media.
On 16 July 2025, while Brussels eagerly awaited the presentation of the European Commission's plans for the 2028-2034 budget, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil met his French counterpart Éric Lombard in Genshagen. As part of the live broadcast of the Finance Ministers' press conference, Nils Redeker, Deputy Director of the Jacques Delors Centre, gave an assessment of the EU's budget plans and the expected reaction from Berlin on television channel phoenix:
‘If you were to come up with a new EU budget today, based on the priorities in the areas of competitiveness, climate protection and defence, then the distribution of the budget would certainly look very different,’ explained Redeker at the beginning of the interview in response to the question of why a large proportion of the money in the current budget up to 2027 (the so-called ‘Multiannual Financial Framework’, or MFF) is being spent on agriculture and infrastructure.
Redeker welcomes the slight growth in the budget and the planned flexibility to prioritise future expenditure accordingly, as well as the merging of funding pots for the agricultural sector, which could promise better coordination. In the interview, he also assesses what in particular is likely to be negotiated over the next two years and surmises that the EU Commission could be planning several smaller levies to enable budget growth.
In an interview with Tagesschau on Wednesday morning, he also addressed the question of how the new budget can be financed and how the member states are to cover budget growth through new taxes or higher levies: "Either you agree on common taxes or you have to be honest and say: then it will cost more for everyone. I don't think the idea that we have a significantly smaller budget works," said Redeker in an interview with ARD Brussels.
As the financially strongest member state, Germany's positioning is particularly relevant. In the days leading up to the official presentation of the budget plans, Nils Redeker spoke to Handelsblatt, Table.Briefings and The Pioneer, among others, about what can be expected from the German government in the upcoming negotiations and what realities it should recognise with regard to its European policy.
While the first critical voices are being heard from Berlin in view of possible higher levies to Brussels, the EU is showing flexibility on another issue: in order to avoid coming into conflict with European rules when taking on debt for the German investment package, the German government and the EU Commission have agreed on a compromise based on an adjustment of growth forecasts. Nils Redeker explained exactly what this compromise looks like on Deutschlandfunk radio on Wednesday afternoon - noting that it could set a risky precedent. After all, what applies to financially strong Germany could in future also be demanded by member states whose high levels of debt are already causing problems.